How The Unusual Season Broke the Traditional NFL Coach of the Year Mold.
Usually, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year award adheres to a straightforward script. It often serves as a form of mea culpa. Sorry we underestimated your squad in our preseason predictions.
On paper, it's a clear-cut line: the coach who oversaw the most dramatic turnaround is handed the prize. In practice, it fuels an yearly discussion about expectations and whether we're truly rewarding superior leadership or simply the biggest shock.
But this year's field is profoundly different. The list of contenders is remarkably strong. It has been the campaign of resurgences. The league has been messy, with recent division winners falling away and longtime also-rans rising in unison. In an ordinary year, Sean Payton guiding the his team to the top of the AFC would make him the clear front-runner. But in such a wild and entertaining year, he's competing with five other elite candidates.
Below is how the projected vote should shake out.
5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, Their Record
Voters for Coach of the Year voters love signal-callers. History shows this. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. Should you solve a franchise QB, you're well on your way home.
The Bears' head coach hasn't just fixed Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. Within an ideal ecosystem, the QB has been given the chance to showcase his otherworldly ability. Since midseason onward, the Bears sit at number four in offensive EPA per play. That's not a hot streak – it's sustained performance. With his guidance, the quarterback has become more confident, far less reckless, and has eagerly submitted to the gameplan instead of improvising. It is an offense built solely in the coach's vision: a physical run game, a heavy helping of play-action and a innovative passing attack that creates wide-open receivers everywhere. Williams has taken advantage. And when easy reads weren't there, he's been capable to create big plays out of broken plays.
Johnson arrived to Chicago with a defined offensive vision. Virtually each bet – overhauling the offensive line, utilizing the tight ends, turning the QB into a rhythm thrower – has paid off. That's rare for a first-year skipper. And it's rarer still for a coach who entered the building with the level of expectations Johnson did. For two straight cycles, he was the most sought-after name on the coaching market. But when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are zero guarantees. Somehow, Johnson has met the hype – and even surpassed them. He's proven not just to be a offensive genius but the kind of leader that can inject fresh energy into an franchise.
During a ordinary season, Johnson would be the clear-cut choice. Yet this is not a typical year!
Where his case runs slightly into trouble is on the defensive side. The Bears presently sit in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are living on takeaways, and turnovers are notoriously unreliable. Defensive minds can stress creating turnovers, but no one can guarantee it. He is on the ballot because the offensive production is real. He's not higher because variance is doing an outsized share of the defense's work. If not for a couple bounces of the ball, the team would be several victories worse off. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the core is in place for sustained success. However Johnson falls short here.
4) Liam Coen, His Team, 12-4
The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable position to his counterpart. He's a fellow rookie leader who has engineered a rapid turnaround. Over the crucial final weeks of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the best overall football of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defense that now sits at fifth in the league in EPA per play.
What's more impressively, he has excelled at the intangibles aspects, which wasn't a given after his early public appearances and some of his offseason moves.
The coach walked into the Jaguars with an exceptionally raw coaching staff. Unlike Johnson, who surrounded themselves with the ideal coaching cocktail of youth and experience, he hired first-timers. From the head coach himself to coordinators to position coaches, the Jags are filled with rookies. That type of approach is intriguing in theory, but often fails in reality – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everyone is figuring out a their job in real-time. But Coen has managed to bring the entire group and all elements into sync.
Following an initial hot beginning, there was a risk that the season would go off the rails. A midseason setback had the team stumbling again. That's usually when leaders overcorrect. He didn't. Instead, he simplified the approach. The offense stopped chasing explosive plays and started seeking consistent ones. The coach refocused the offense around key players and the ground attack, and encouraged his QB to use his mobility more.
The outcomes are obvious. The Jags have won multiple games in a row and will be the AFC's number three seed. Coen gets the slightest knock in the rankings because he inherited a talented roster, but he has proven he can maximize that roster.
3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, Their Record
Each Strong of the Year narrative has a hinge moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback decision.
Parting ways from a veteran, signing a different signal-caller and partnering him with an new offensive coordinator could have derailed the season in October. Instead, it shaped it. By the mid point of the season, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has fallen away since that time, slipping to 23rd in EPA per pass attempt over the latter part of the season, putting him only a single place ahead of other QBs.
Still